Notyalcsdrawkcab’s Weblog

June 9, 2010

Having a look at the ELO Ratings

Filed under: Football — notyalcsdrawkcab @ 11:34 pm

So I heard about these ELO ratings, and figured I`d have a look at them.  Based on the system used in chess, supposed to be better than the FIFA rankings … not perfect, but better, some non WC teams are in the top 20, WC participants are ranked in the 40s and 50s.

The top 20 makes very interesting reading –

Brazil, Spain

Netherlands, England, Germany, Italy

Argentina, Mexico, Croatia, Chile, Portugal, France, Egypt, Uruguay, Russia, Serbia, Ukraine, Turkey, Sweden, United States …

Then us, and a bunch of countries around our level …

Those groupings are mine …

Brazil and Spain are the two countries that would be disappointed if they DON`T win the WC.  The next tier is made of the teams that have a decent chance of winning the World Cup, won`t be disappointed if they lose it, and had decent form through their qualification (I don`t remember Italy`s qualification tbh). The next tier is a weird mix of lesser talented teams playing well, and heavyweights who have played badly in qualification … Arg, France and Port should be in the second tier, but they made hard work of their qualification, can they turn it on at the finals (maybe yes?).  Mexico looks to be the dark horse that could join the winners circle imho.  The Americans got past Spain in the Confeds, could they scrap their way to the cup? (nahhhh).

The last WC showed that you don`t have to be the most talented team to win it (Forza Italia!).  A bit of talent, squad depth, smarts and organisation can get you to the important games at the end, and then, who knows?

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